Election Analytics

Election Analytics

Welcome to Election Analytics, a web tool that tracks and analyzes polling data to forecast who will win the upcoming November 2012 elections. The analytics used in our computations are based on Bayesian statistics and operations research methodologies.

Our site has been significantly enhanced since 2008 (election08.cs.illinois.edu). In addition to forecasting the outcome of the presidential election between President Obama and Governor Romney, we also provide forecasts for who will control the United States Senate and the House of Representatives.

All forecasts are for the day on which the polls were taken. They represent the outcome if the election was held on that day, not the projected outcome on November 6. Updates to our forecasts are made based on new polling data that become available. As we approach the actual election date, our forecasts will converge to the actual outcome. We welcome comments and hope that you enjoy tracking our forecasts as we approach election day, November 6, 2012.

The 2012 United States elections are now history, and our nation has re-elected President Barack Obama as the 44th President of the United States. In addition, the Democratic Party has retained a majority in the Senate while the Republican Party has retained a majority in the House of Representatives.

The table below presents a high-level overview of the actual election results compared to our forecasts. The Correct? column answers whether or not our forecast led to the correct conclusion regarding who would win the White House and which parties would control the Senate and House of Representatives. For a specific breakdown of these results, please visit the corresponding pages.

Final Results of the 2012 Election

Actual Election Results Our Election Day Forecast Correct?
President Obama Romney Obama Romney Yes
Electoral Votes 332 206 304.0 234.0
Senate Dem+Ind Rep Dem+Ind Rep Yes
Senate Seats 55 45 53.6 46.4
House Dem Rep Dem Rep Yes
House Seats 201 234 193.0 242.0

Pollster-Specific Results for 11-05-12

Presidential results with only Rasmussen polls.
Presidential results with only PPP polls.


Swing Scenario:

EEV is the expected number of electoral votes
ESS is the expected number of Senate seats
EHS is the expected number of House seats
P. Win is the probability of winning at least 270 electoral votes
P. 51+ is the probability of winning at least 51 seats in the Senate
P. 218+ is the probability of winning at least 218 seats in the House
P. Tie is the probability of a tie
hits counter

University of Illinois
at Urbana-Champaign

Follow us on Twitter and Facebook!