Roll... to the Capitol

Official Results of the 2012 House Elections

Compare to our Final Forecast, view our Closest Scenario, and view an analysis of the battleground districts.

Map of U.S.
Party Dem Rep
House Seats

Our

Swing Scenario:

Map of U.S.
Party Dem Rep
Expected Seats
Safe Seats
Standard Deviation
Prob. 218+ Seats
Prob. 290+ Seats

Map of U.S.
Party Dem Rep
Expected Seats
Safe Seats
Standard Deviation
Prob. 218+ Seats
Prob. 290+ Seats

How Did We Do?

The 2012 United States House of Representatives elections are now history, with the Republican Party retaining majority control of the House.

Of the 435 House races, our model . In the Neutral swing scenario, the expected number of House seats for the Republicans was 242.0, while 234 were actually achieved. This discrepancy corresponds to an error of 2.18 standard deviations (based on a standard deviation of 3.67). The Strong Democratic swing scenario was the closest to the actual results, predicting 238.8 House seats for the Republicans.

The following table analyzes the races that the model missed, as well as races where no candidate was predicted to win with more than an 85% chance. Races that are yet to be determined are also listed here.

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University of Illinois
at Urbana-Champaign

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